Showing posts with label Housing. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Housing. Show all posts

Tuesday, September 23, 2008

Housing Woes Grows

At the core of the Wall Street crisis lies unresolved issues with the housing market in the US. This is the rot at the core of investment banks' holdings. Unfortunately, the data still does not paint a pretty picture about the housing market. The inventory of unsold, previously owned homes stands at a high approaching 12 months. This means there is a pipeline of 12 month's worth of sales in currnt back inventory of unsold homes. Since large numbers of people are probably postponing their home sales if they can, due to the lousy housing market, this backlog is probably a dam behind which lie many more months of unsold inventory just waiting for a sign of improvement before it gets dumped onto the market, depressing housing prices once again.

There was a brief uptick in the median price of homes in the first quarter of '08, but the trend resumed its downward course in the second quarter of '08. Meanwhile, the delinquency rate shot up in the second quarter of '08, now above 5 percent on first mortgages, and the default rate on first mortgages approached 2% in the second quarter of '08.

None of this reflects added woes that may come from the loss of jobs on a related to the Wall Street melt down. For example, economist James Hughes, dean of Rutgers' Edward J. Bloustein School of of Planning and Public Policy, said that he expects New Jersey to suffer economic difficulties and job losses well in excess of the 16,000 that the state has already lost since the beginning of the year. In a worst case scenario, 100,000 jobs could be lost, he fears.

Inventory of Unsold Homes; Median Home Sales Price Trend; Delinquencies & Defaults Trend

Monday, September 22, 2008

"It Was Leverage Killed the Beast"

Police Lieutenant: Well, Denham, the airplanes got him.
Carl Denham: Oh no, it wasn't the airplanes. It was beauty killed the beast.


Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Group, the remaining independent Wall Street brokerages, threw in the towel today and converted to traditional bank holding companies, placing themselves under the regulatory supervision of numerous federal regulatory agencies. Instead of being overseen just by the Securities and Exchange Commission, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley will now face much stricter oversight from numerous federal agencies. The Federal Reserve will regulate the parent companies, the Comptroller of the Currency will oversee the national bank charters, and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. will likely play a bigger role because the companies are expected to seek much higher volumes of federally backed deposits, and the entities may seek to take customer deposits, instead of depending on short-term borrowing to finance their investments.

The firms will reduce their leverage ratios -- a measure of a firm's risk in relation to the equity on its balance sheet -- over the next two years from current levels to something more in line with that at commercial banks. Investment bank ratios now stand above 20, with commercial banks closer to 10. The combination of easy money, interest rates kept lower than the real inflation rate by the Fed after the dot com bust, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac incentives to make housing affordable to more Americans, and finally the housing bubble burst, at the core of the problems, that all contributed to the rapid deleveraging of investment banks as their underlying assets crashed in value.

Quarterly Leverage Ratios Trend for Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Lehman Brothers


Morgan Stanley and Lehman Brothers had leverage ratios above 30 in Q1 2008, while Goldman Sachs had a leverage ratio of 27. For comparison purposes, Bank of America has a leverage ratio of 11, giving it far more assets to back up any troubled investments it makes. Having more assets on their balance sheets allowed the commercial banks to ride out the storm, since they had more resources to fall back on, without having to raise more capital, as their investments declined in value. Much of the investments banks out-sized profits came from this leverage - investing borrowed money in the hopes of getting a great return before having to pay it back. This fueled the out-sized returns of the investment banks during their salad day, and fuled their death pyres during the housing crash. They will be safer in the future, but also have smaller returns, as their ability to bet large amounts of someone else's money has now come a'cropper.

Tuesday, September 16, 2008

Mortgage Foreclosures in the US, April 2007 - August 2008

Total home foreclosures in the US have grown 105.7 percent from April 2007 to August 2008, growing to 303,879 from 147,708.

Mortgage Foreclosures in the US, April 2007 - August 2008

Source: Thomson Financial; RealtyTrac